In a "process of an unpredictable health risk", analysis and forecasting are essential

In the previous blog were indicated the elements of project management to be used for an unpredictable health process (their non-respect which caused the cartrastrophe of coronavirus).

Other provisions will have to be taken to take into account: the evolution of the coronavirus, and take into account the limited resources to be implemented and their smoothing on the different sites.

A preliminary analysis must determine the framework, the envelope of the progress of an unforeseeable risk in the field of health to stop all the procedures necessary to face it and this according to the knowledge of the moment.

Initially, the person in charge (appointed according to his skills at the level of project management and people) will consult during successive analyzes the scientists and specialists directly concerned by the risk to obtain an initial framework of the course of the risk.

Then, with other scientists from complementary disciplines, this first analysis of the predicted course of the risk will be refined. The prescriptions and procedures to be used will be codified, and accepted by all these stakeholders, they will become enforceable as soon as the virus appears.

At the same time, it will be important to see the equipment needed to be implemented, the cost and this for different levels of needs. The balance between maintaining maximum security and the cost of this equipment will be the major difficulty to be taken into account.

It must result from it that starting from the current knowledge of the risk, after having received the agreements of all the participants a provisional unfolding will be stopped and obtained. The aim is that the users of each of the sites can implement it as soon as the risk appears.

It is essential that the analysis be reviewed periodically to modify the assumptions according to new knowledge. Depending on the risk, several similar approaches can be considered; the one retained, must be chosen at the time of the observation of this risk.

The prescriptions and procedures that have been established by the scientists and the specialists and stakeholders concerned must be implemented immediately as soon as the risk appears on the sites.

An updated database must contain all the corresponding information that has been stored following the discussions exchanged during the analysis meetings and information concerning the health risk. It will be the memory to consult.

A centralizing cell, will have to be created, will inform each of the sites of the needs in personnel and means that it must envisage, it will ensure the smoothing of these between the sites. It will have to monitor the evolution of the risk and take the corresponding corrective measures. It will inform the sites to enable them as soon as the risk appears to begin their intervention.

Very important notes

The mistake not to make: would be to question the course of the risk established by scientists and specialists, and to wait for a decision that could cause delays with very important and uncontrollable consequences.
In the case of an unforeseeable health risk, a cold decision is preferable to a hot instant decision.

A distinction must be made between the value of equipment and that of supplies. Since the consequences of shifting tasks are independent of their values, for safety, provisions must be made so that supplies are available at all times.

But he will remain the tough choice that can arise during an "unpredictable health risk" process : the importance of expensive equipment to be provided.

Privilege the most fragile members of current society or the interests of future generations.


Future blogs will discuss procedures for mastery of the concept of time especially with the use of project management.

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